So far, balance is better for Dilma

At the end of June, the situation of the election campaign is largely favorable to Dilma Rousseff. This does not come as a surprise to Arko Advice. Even when Dilma was far behind José Serra and Ciro Gomes, Arko understood that the structural conditions of the campaign and the psychosocial environment would benefit the ruling candidate.

We do not want to say that Jose Serra has no chance of winning. However, the situation at the end of June confirms the expectations we had as to the performance of Dilma. Currently, Serra’s best chance is taking the dispute to the second round and trying to reverse the leadership of Dilma, coopting the votes that will go to Silva in the first round.

The month of June brings the leadership of Dilma in all major polls and important political aspects. The PMDB closed with Dilma and the coalition resolved the main problem of understanding among the parties in Minas Gerais. The PP - after flirting with Serra - decided on informal support for Dilma. Twenty party candidate will support her. Aecio Neves did not accept to be on the ticket with Serra. Worse, the choice dragged on for June and ended in a clash between the PSDB and DEM. Still in favor of Dilma, Lula's popularity is strong and solid and the performance of the economy remains very positive.

Jose Serra, for his part, besides losing the lead, provoked a conflict with the DEM for the choice of Álvaro Dias (PSDB-PR) to be his running mate. After flirting with the PP, and even offering Dornelles Francisco a spot on the ticket, he won the backing of only five directories. After seeking varied support he only managed to attract and keep the PPS and PTB. In Rio de Janeiro, the podium will be split with Serra and Marina Silva. And, in Minas Gerais, there are already significant outbreaks of support for the combination Dilma-Anastasia.

Apparently, the situation can still get worse for Sierra through July. After the World Cup, Brazil will more closely follow the electoral process. With the campaign officially underway, Lula may be more emphatic in his support for Dilma. In other words, without any outstanding new trends the consolidation of leadership in Dilma will occur with the official opening of the campaign.

Only this year, Dilma gained around 10 points while Serra has lost three. Not much. But what is more relevant is Dilma’s performance.

Historically, he who leads the pre-campaign tends to win elections. It has been so since the election of Fernando Collor. According to the Ibope, Dilma is 3.3 points away from winning in the first round campaign. What once seemed impossible, becomes possible, though not likely.